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Friday, April 15, 2011

CPI Inflation Report and a 25-Year Perspective

The BLS released its Consumer Price Index report for March, with the following highlights:

1.The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent.

2. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March, a smaller increase than in the previous two months. The index for all items less food and energy has increased 1.2 percent over the last 12 months.

3. Over the last year, the energy component of the CPI increased by 15.5%, driven by a 27.5% increase in gasoline prices, but offset somewhat from a 5.5% decrease in natural gas prices.

4. Overall food prices increased by 2.9% on an annual basis, with the "food at home" component increasing by 3.6% and "food away from home" increasing only 1.9%, suggesting that restaurants are absorbing some of the food prices increases to stay competitive.

5. Apparel prices fell by -0.60% compared to last March, marking the 13th consecutive month that clothing prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis.  American consumers can thank globalization and trade for delivering the most affordable clothing in history - 50 years ago Americans spent 8% of their disposable income on clothing that was probably all "Made in the USA" and relatively expensive, and today they spend less than 3% of disposable income on low-cost clothing that is made all over the world.

MP: See the chart above for a 25-year historical view of annual inflation for both the CPI: All Items and core inflation.  Since 1985, the average annual inflation rate for both series is 2.9%, meaning that inflation today is below the 25-year average especially for core inflation at only 1.2%.  

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