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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Jobless Claims Spike Due to Seasonal Adjustment?

Scott Grannis has a post today about the spike in weekly jobless claims, which could likely be the result of a faulty seasonal adjustment factor.   Looking at other measures of jobless claims, including continued claims displayed in the graph above, the trend is still downward, suggesting a gradually improving labor market.  Scott provides a graph showing ongoing declines also in the total claims and emergency claims, and concludes that "there has been no sudden deterioration in the real world."

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