The Jobless Recovery and the Education Gap

The charts above show the differences in: a) monthly employment levels and b) monthly unemployment rates between 1992 and 2011 for: a) college graduates and b) workers with less than a high school diploma.  The differences are quite striking and interesting, and might help explain some of the labor market dynamics in the current "jobless recovery."  

Note that the employment level for college graduates flattened during the 2008-2009 recession, but is now at a record high level.  In contrast, the employment level for workers without a high school diploma is about 2.5 million below the pre-recession peak.  Likewise the jobless rate for college graduates has increased by a few percentage points because of the recession (and is now at 4.4%), but the jobless rate for workers with less than a high school diploma has increased by more than six percentage points (now at 14.3%), and was recently almost ten percentage points above its pre-recession level. 

Bottom Line: The current jobless recovery, compared to the last two, is more severe and persistent, largely because of: a) the falling employment level and b) elevated jobless rate for workers lacking a high school diploma.  While lacking a high school dimploma has always been a liability for workers, that liability has gone from a minor liability to now a major setback as we move increasingly into a knowledge-based economy.  Comparatively, college-educated workers are doing quite well, it's the less educated workers that are struggling, and will continue to struggle, to find employment and keep a job.