1. World trade volume increased in August by 1.4% on a monthly basis and by 5.9% on an annual basis, bringing the global trade index to a new all-time record high of 166.5 (see chart). World trade is now 3.2% above the previous April 2008 peak of 161.3, and 28% above the recessionary low of 103.2 in March of 2009.
2. On an annual basis through August, export growth was especially strong in emerging economies (9.0%) and the U.S. (6.6%), while Asia led the growth in imports at 10%.
2. On an annual basis through August, export growth was especially strong in emerging economies (9.0%) and the U.S. (6.6%), while Asia led the growth in imports at 10%.
3. World industrial output increased by 0.3% in August from the previous month to a new monthly high (see chart), following monthly increases of 0.50% in July, 0.60% in June and 1.0% in May. On an annual basis, world industrial production increased 5.5% above its year-ago level, with especially strong output growth in the emerging economies (8.21%) and Asia (11.1% gain).
4. World output is now 6.4% above its pre-recession level and 21.2% above the recessionary low in March 2009.
Bottom Line: World trade and world output have fully recovered from the global economic contraction of 2008-2009, and are both now well above their early recession peaks. Further, they both reached all-time record highs in August and they have both been growing at healthy rates on both a monthly and annual basis in recent months. At least based on world economic conditions through August, there's nothing to suggest a pending global recession or slowdown.
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